Insights on Summit County Real Estate

Jan. 18, 2019

Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact?

Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

Economists and analysts know that the country has experienced economic growth for almost a decade. They also know that a recession can’t be too far off. A recent report by Zillow Research shed light on a survey conducted by Pulsenomics in which they asked economists, investment strategists and market analysts how they felt about the current housing market. That report revealed the possible timing of the next recession:

Experts largely expect the next recession to begin in 2020.”

That timing concurs with a recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal:

“The economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as the second-longest in American history most likely will end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool off an overheating economy, according to forecasters surveyed.”

Here is a graph comparing the opinions of those surveyed by both the Wall Street Journal and Pulsenomics:

Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis

According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a recession is defined as follows:

“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

A recession means the economy has slowed down markedly. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. Obviously, the housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, during the previous five recessions home values appreciated.

Next Recession in 2020? What Will Be the Impact? | MyKCM

According to the experts surveyed by Pulsenomics, the top three probable triggers for the next recession are:

  • Monetary policy
  • Trade policy
  • A stock market correction

A housing market correction was ranked ninth in probability. Those same experts also projected that home values would continue to appreciate in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.  

Others agree that housing will not be impacted like it was a decade ago.

Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economistexplained:

“If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”

And U.S. News and World Report agreed:

“Fortunately – and hopefully – the history of recessions and current issues that could harm the economy don’t lead many to believe the housing market crash will repeat itself in an upcoming decline.”

Bottom Line

A recession is probably less than two years away. A housing crisis is not.

Jan. 16, 2019

The #1 Reason to Not Wait Until Spring to Sell Your House

Many sellers believe that spring is the best time to place their homes on the market because buyer demand traditionally increases at that time of year, but what they don’t realize is that if every homeowner believes the same thing, then that is when they will have the most competition!

The #1 Reason to List Your Home in the Winter Months is Less Competition!

Housing supply traditionally shrinks at this time of year, so the choices buyers have will be limited. The chart below was created using the months’ supply of listings from the Summit Association of Realtors

 

As you can see, the ‘sweet spot’ to list your home for the most exposure naturally occurs in the late fall and winter months (November – February). 

Temperatures aren’t the only thing that heats up in the spring – so do listings!

Added Bonus: Only Serious Buyers Are Out in the Winter

At this time of year, only those purchasers who are serious about buying a home will be in the marketplace. You and your family will not be bothered and inconvenienced by mere ‘lookers.’ The lookers are at the mall or online doing their holiday shopping.

Bottom Line

If you have been debating whether or not to sell your home and are curious about market conditions in your area, let’s get together to help you decide the best time to list your house for sale.

Jan. 16, 2019

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

Home prices are on the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?

Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.

The Impact of an Economic Slowdown

Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.

However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.

It Comes Down to Supply and Demand

As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the
available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012.

That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.

There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of homes for sale increased as compared to last year over the last 5 months after 36 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.

As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels.
We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.6% annual average we have
seen more recently.

CoreLogic is predicting that home values will appreciate by 4.7% over the next twelve months.

Bottom Line

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:

“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation
of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”

Jan. 14, 2019

Is the Recent Dip in Interest Rates Here to Stay?

Is the Recent Dip in Interest Rates Here to Stay? | MyKCM

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed consistently throughout 2018 until the middle of November. After that point, rates returned to levels that we saw in August to close out the year at 4.55%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

After the first week of 2019, rates have continued their downward trend. As Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist Sam Khater notes, this is great news for homebuyers. He states,

“Mortgage rates declined to start the new year with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipping to 4.51 percent. Low mortgage rates combined with decelerating home price growth should get prospective homebuyers excited to buy.”

In some areas of the country, the combination of rising interest rates and rising home prices had made some first-time buyers push pause on their home searches. But with more inventory coming to market, continued price growth, and interest rates slowing, this is a great time to get back in the market!

Will This Trend Continue?

According to the latest forecasts from Fannie Maethe Mortgage Bankers Associationand the National Association of Realtors, mortgage rates will increase over the course of 2019, but not at the same pace they did in 2018. You can see the forecasts broken down by quarter below.

Is the Recent Dip in Interest Rates Here to Stay? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

Even a small increase (or decrease) in interest rates can impact your monthly housing cost. If buying a home in 2019 is on your short list of goals to achieve, let’s get together to find out if you are able to today.

Jan. 8, 2019

January is Radon Awareness Month

Thanks to our Friends at Pillar to Post Home Inspections for this great information:

JANUARY IS RADON AWARENESS MONTH

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

 Any home can have a radon problem – old or new homes, well-sealed or drafty homes, homes with or without basements. The EPA estimates that nearly 1 out of every 15 homes in the U.S. have elevated radon levels. Prolonged exposure to unsafe levels of radon can increase the risk of lung cancer; in fact, radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. Lung cancer caused by avoidable radon exposure is preventable, but only if radon issues are detected and mitigated prior to prolonged exposure in homes and buildings. There is real risk in not knowing if a home has a high level of radon.

WHAT IS RADON?

Radon is a naturally occurring odorless, colorless, radioactive gas formed by the ongoing decay of uranium in soil, rocks, sediments, and even well or ground water. While radon that escapes into the atmosphere is not harmful, dangerously high concentrations can build up indoors, exposing occupants to possible health risks. 

HOW DOES RADON GET INTO A HOME?

Radon can migrate into the home in several ways. Openings or cracks in basement walls, foundations or floors are common avenues. Sumps, basement drains, and spaces between gas or water fittings can also allow radon into the structure. Other entry points can include gaps in suspended floors and cavities within walls.

HOW CAN I MAKE SURE MY FAMILY ISN'T AT RISK?

We encourage homeowners to add radon testing to the home inspection process. Your Pillar To Post Home Inspector will set up the monitoring equipment in the home and report on the results. If an elevated level of radon is detected, steps can be taken to reduce the concentration to or below acceptable levels inside virtually any home. This can include a relatively simple setup such as a collection system with a radon vent pipe, which prevents radon from entering the home in the first place. Professional mitigation services can provide solutions for a home’s specific conditions.

HOW CAN I TEST MY HOME NOW FOR RADON?

The High Country Conservation Center provides free radon test kits to local participants in our energy efficiency programs. Additionally, we can recommend contractors to perform the recommended mitigation work for your home. If you’ve yet to test your Summit County residence for radon, now is the time to pick up a free test kit and take action on radon. If your concerned about the radon levels in your home, give us a call to see how we can not only help improve the indoor air quality in your home, but make your home more energy efficient as well.

 

Dec. 17, 2018

How to Apply Tax Changes to Your 2018 Returns as a Homeowner or Renter

If you're a planner like me, it's time to start getting your affairs in order in time for tax season. You don't want to miss out on something that needs to be complete by December 31st to get that tax credit! The holidays are a great time to relax, and focus on what's coming in 2019!

The IRS plans to release rules by December on how to apply the tax law changes. To help you, the National Association of REALTORS® has released a series of videos on what you need to know.

The videos aren’t a replacement for talking with your accountant or tax adviser. But you can learn about the parts of the law that apply to you as a homeowner or renter. 

Dec. 7, 2018

My Favorite Breckenridge Apres Ski

After a long day of skiing, nothing sounds better than to sit back, relax, kick your boots off, and enjoy a cold one (or two). So where are the best places in Breckenridge for Apres Ski (beyond the obvious ones on the hill)? Who has the best deals? With nearly every restaurant around offering great afternoon deals on food and drinks, the choice of where to go can be overwhelming. Luckily, we’ve narrowed down the choices to a to a few local favorites that definitely make the hours between 3-6 quite a bit happier!

Aurum Breckenridge 4PM to 6PM

Aurum opened the summer of 2018, and quickly becoming a favorite! Come in Every day 4-6pm daily for the best happy hour in Breckenridge! Half-priced menu items, half priced wines by the glass, $3 draft beer and $7 classic Cocktails!

Blue River Bistro  3PM to 6PM and 9PM-12AM

Located just beyond the Godola in town, at Blue River Bistro, everything comes in two’s. Not only does the restaurant have TWO two for one deals during happy hour, but they also have two happy hours every day! From the hours of 3-6 get 2-for-1 martinis and 2-for-1 apps from a mouthwatering menu, as well as $2 off drafts!

BOLD 2-6PM

Located in Main Street Station near Peak 9, just like the name says, “BoLD” is open all day for Breakfast, Lunch, and Dinner, however, BoLD absolutely kills is with their happy hour and daily specials! Enjoy happy hour every day from 2-6pm. Specials include: 2 for 1 cocktails, 2 for 1 appetizers, $4 for any craft draft, $5 house glasses of wine. *Tip - Bring your pooch and enjoy BoLD's beautiful, dog-friendly patio!

Legends 4-6PM

Can't get in for Dinner Reservations? Legends is Breckenridge’s newest fine dining restaurant featuring high end steaks, authentic Italian and prohibition era cocktails. Legends gets its name from the black and white photographs lining the walls of the dining room. From Barney Ford to Butch Cassidy, each portrait showcases the legendary men and women who helped shape Colorado’s history. Pair the nostalgic décor with amazing service and top-notch cuisine, and you have an unforgettable dinging experience… You might even call it legendary.

Mi Casa  3PM to 6PM

Mi Casa has been a locals’ choice for aprés ski since 1981, so why not check it out for yourself? They have an impressive selection of Mexican cervezas and the largest tequila list in Summit County with over 100 selections! There are also free chips and salsa and FREE NACHOS during happy hour! Check out their Specialty Margaritas with fresh squeezed lime juice and your choice of tequila!

 

Nov. 2, 2018

Can't Miss Events in Breckenridge 2018/2019

When the snow flies, Breckenridge locals come out to play, and it’s not just on the slopes. A winter-long calendar of events in Breckenridge keeps the lively atmosphere rolling through spring. There are so many events, we can't name them all here, but these are a few of my top favorites. Check out the top winter festivals to start planning your winter escape.

Opening Day
- Another exciting ski season begins when Breck and Keystone opens November 9, 2018 for the 2018/19 season. Vail and Copper Mountain will be open from Friday, November 16. Beaver Creek will be open Wednesday, November 21. 

November 22 - Thanksgiving in the Mountains - It’s easy to be thankful when you’re spending the Thanksgiving holiday in Breckenridge.  Create your own holiday trot by going snowshoeing, skiing, snowmobiling or taking a historic tour. 

December 8 - Lighting of Breckenridge and Race of the Santas - Kick-off the holiday season with Breckenridge’s annual Lighting of Breckenridge and Race of the Santas festivities. Our 2018 celebration will take place on December 8, 2018. The first weekend in December begins Breckenridge’s annual transformation into a sparkling holiday scene. Participate in the Race of the Santas, where hundreds of jolly look-alikes race and watch as Santa uses his magic to light up the town for the season.

December 13-16 - Dew Tour - The Winter Dew Tour is celebrating its 11th year at Breckenridge Resort in Colorado. The free innovative live contest and festival takes place Thursday, Dec 13 through Sunday, Dec 16 and transcends across multiple digital content platforms, bringing together the world's best skiers, snowboarders, artists, brands and fans in a celebration of competition, creativity, and style. 

December 31 - New Years in Breckenridge - Ring in the New Year with style! Catch the Torch Light Parade down the slopes of Breckenridge Ski Resort followed by a spectacular array of fireworks. Of course, town will be packed with NYE dinners, live music, and parties to ring in the New Year in style.

January 9-12 - Ullr Fest will celebrate 55 years January 9-12, 2019. The Town of Breckenridge invites snow lovers of all ages to join the party. 

January 21-30 - Join us for the 29th Annual International Snow Sculpture Championships presented by Breckenridge Brewery!During the Breckenridge International Snow Sculpture Championships, 16 teams from around the world descend on Breckenridge, Colo. to hand-carve 25-ton blocks of snow into enormous, intricate works of art. 

March 5, 2019 - Mardi Gras - Each year, visitors from New Orleans and Mardi Gras lovers take over Breckenridge with masks, boas, beads, music, and revelry to commemorate the carnival season. Join us on Main Street for a New Orleans-Style Mardi Gras party! This one-day festival is filled with the most festive Mardi Gras events in Breckenridge!

Oct. 30, 2018

Live Market Data in the Summit County Area

Introducing BreckLiving's Market Watch!

Are you watching the Real Estate Market in and around the Summit County Mountain Area? Are you dreaming of owning real estate in the mountains? Do you like to rely on market data to help inform your decision? At BreckLiving, we have an amazing advantage for you. Let me know what Real Estate Market Data you want to watch, and I can create a customized Market Watch Graph and Data just for you! 

Highlights of what you can do with BreckLiving's Market Watch:

·         compare up to four geographies at a time

·         filter search results by countless housing variable combinations

·         examine housing market metrics as counts, medians and averages

·         customize price and square footage ranges

Metrics

Metrics represent the residential real estate topics that areas pop against. Some are counts, some are calculations. Some calculations are median, some are just average. In combination, they are the primary descriptors for what makes a market tick. Only one metric can be selected at any time. Our Metrics Include: Sales Price, New Listing, Active Listings, Sold Listings, Days on the Market, Percentage of List Price, Price per Square Foot, Dollar Volume, Shows to Pending, and Shows per Listing.

What can BreckLiving's Market Watch do for you?

We can create any series of information that you would like to watch on your property, or on your next property. We can research trends in the area, define areas around your home that make sense for comparisons, and provide you with live links that allow you to check the market at any time with all up to date information. Email or Call us today with your Market Watch wish list, and we'll create your Live Market Watch Update for you.

 

Oct. 11, 2018

5 New Restaurants you Must Check Out

5 Best Restaurants in Breckenridge That Bring Dining to the Next Level

We love our pizza, and let’s face it, a heaping plate of ooey-gooey nachos (with a cold beer, of course) tastes great after a long day in the backcountry. But as both locals and visitors seek out more refined meals, restaurateurs have responded. The best part? Upping the ante has not meant upping the attitude. Try these 5 favorite restaurants in Breckenridge for top meals.

ARTISAN 206

Featuring worldly inspired cuisine, Artisan 206 is one of the newest restaurants in town, but it has quickly earned a reputation as one of the best. With a wide variety of palette options, you can’t go wrong.

AURUM

Don’t miss the best new restaurant to hit Breckenridge! Start to finish, Aurum is OUTSTANDING!  I absolutely cannot wait to go back. This makes for a perfect evening (and a fabulous happy hour) with incredible food, Aurum–you’re just what Breckenridge needed!

LEGENDS

Legends is Breckenridge’s newest fine dining restaurant featuring high-end steaks, house-made pasta and prohibition era cocktails. Legends gets its name from the black and white photographs lining the walls of the dining room. From Barney Ford to Butch Cassidy, each portrait showcases the iconic men and women who helped shape Colorado’s history. Pair the nostalgic décor with amazing service and top-notch cuisine, and you have an unforgettable dining experience… You might even call it legendary.

PIANTE PIZZERIA

Experience a made-from-scratch, wood-fired, vegan pizza that will blow you away and make you question what it means to be a vegan. Using house-made cashew cheese, plant-based meats, and fresh veggies, Chef Jason Goldstein will seduce the most skeptic of skeptics. The cozy dining room environment features vintage farm décor resulting in a wonderfully casual and inviting space.

BRECKENRIDGE DISTILLERY RESTAURANT

Breckenridge Distillery Restaurant focuses on small plates and family-style meals, all designed for sharing with good company. Using whole animals as much as possible, the flavors are big and bold, yet remain rooted in traditional cuisine.  Expect big bold flavors and dishes rooted in the tradition of comfort food. Guests will experience the harmony of the locally and seasonally inspired cuisine paired with hand-crafted cocktails from Liquid Chef, Billie Keithley.